When these two fighters meet tonight in Memphis, Tennessee, it will be a rematch of their December 2004 split decision battle ... a battle in which Glen Johnson (42-9-2, 28 KOs) narrowly defeated Antonio Tarver (22-3, 18 KOs). No world championship belt is at stake since both fighters had to relinquish their title belts in order to duke it out last December for the bragging rights of being called the "top dog" in the division.
The odds? They’re 8-5 favorite for the Magic-Man Antonio Tarver. Why? Because most everyone watching the fight thought Tarver won the fight … including the Mighty-Moe. Perhaps it was Johnson’s gutsy effort in coming forward the entire fight that swayed the judges, or Johnson’s hard-luck underdog status that created the impression he was taking the fight away from Tarver … either way it was the wrong call, but not a bad one. Johnson won the judges nod and the hearts of many fans with his gritty determination. However, I think Tarver technically won that fight … and I think he’ll do it again.
Here are the punch stats: In their first fight Tarver threw 853 punches and landed 296. Johnson, on the other hand, threw 796 punches and landed 217. Tarver was busier, landed more punches, and landed the harder shots, landing 220 power punches to Johnson’s 140. Hand’s down, it should have been a victory for Tarver.
Tarver is the bigger of the two men, with Johnson having fought most of his fights as a middleweight. Tarver also has the height and reach advantage … and fights like a tall fighter. Surprisingly, Antonio Tarver is also quicker than Glen Johnson. If Tarver times his punches right, he can catch Johnson reaching in and tag him. Tarver should tie Johnson up when they are in close and avoid laying on the ropes.
As in their first fight, Johnson is going to have to walk through a firestorm to get inside Tarver’s long arms. Johnson is not going to be able to out-box the more versatile Tarver or out-jab him, so he’s going to have to get inside and stay inside … without letting Tarver tie him up. If there is one category where Johnson has Tarver beat, it is in the guts department. If Johnson can lure Tarver into a battle of guts, he can keep Tarver pinned on the ropes and beat him down with his determination.
I look for this fight to go the distance once again, this time with Tarver securing a unanimous decision. I expect a late rally by Johnson. However, this might create target opportunities for Tarver to get a TKO over Johnson.
--The Mighty Moe
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